National Hurricane Center — Eastern Pacific Report
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
855
ABPZ20 KNHC 171138
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 17 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Trudy, located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico.
South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of
next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Adams
Summary for Hurricane Trudy (EP1/EP212026)
...TRUDY HOLDING STEADY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY... As of 6:00 AM CST Sat Oct 17 the center of Trudy was located near 16.3, -103.7 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory Number 16a
Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026
000 WTPZ31 KNHC 171143 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 600 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 ...TRUDY HOLDING STEADY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD... ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 103.7W ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM W OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo * The coast of Mexico from north of Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Punta Mita to San Blas * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 103.7 West. Trudy is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today and pass near the coast tonight into Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening remains possible today, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Sunday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 15 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Advisory Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 170839 TCMEP1 HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. 4 M SEAS....150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 103.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 103.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 104.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.6N 105.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.7N 106.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.9N 108.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 103.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 17/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER GIBBS
Hurricane Trudy Forecast Discussion Number 16
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170845 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026 Trudy's satellite presentation has changed little overall during the past several hours, although the curved band of deep convection wrapping around the northern semicircle has expanded somewhat, with cloud tops as cold as -85 degrees C. A 0053 UTC RCM-3 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) pass and a 0439 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass helped refine the initial position and wind radii of the hurricane. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and objective satellite estimates remain near 75 kt. Given the relatively steady intensity estimates and only modest changes in the convective organization, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. The initial motion is northwestward, or 325/7 kt. A continued northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next day or so as a weak low- to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This general motion should continue through Sunday, bringing the center of Trudy very close to the coast of west-central Mexico. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes increasingly influenced by the low-level steering flow, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, taking the cyclone away from the coast early next week. The latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous prediction, but remains along the right side of the track guidance envelope during the time of closest approach to the coast of Mexico. While Trudy remains over warm waters with relatively high ocean heat content, some additional strengthening is possible today. However, moderate vertical wind shear, estimated at around 14 kt by the latest UW-CIMSS analysis, along with possible dry-air entrainment and the cyclone's proximity to the coast of Mexico, could limit further intensification. By late Sunday, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and a progressively drier mid-level environment are expected to induce steady weakening. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates that shear could increase to around 20 to 25 kt by early next week, while mid-level relative humidity decreases to below 50 percent. These increasingly hostile conditions should eventually cause Trudy to lose its organized deep convection, with the cyclone forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by day 4 and dissipate by day 5. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous prediction, lying near the upper end of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy could strengthen some during the next 12 hours as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings may be required. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.0N 103.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.1N 104.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.6N 105.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.7N 106.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 20.5N 106.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 20.7N 107.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 20.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs
Hurricane Trudy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 170840
PWSEP1
HURRICANE TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212026
0900 UTC SAT OCT 17 2026
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 27(51) 5(56) X(56) X(56)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 9(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28)
P VALLARTA 34 X 4( 4) 36(40) 5(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 76(76) 7(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 15(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MANZANILLO 34 10 80(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
MANZANILLO 50 X 22(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
MANZANILLO 64 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
L CARDENAS 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER GIBBSHurricane Trudy Graphics
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:22:44 GMT